South Africans are heading to the polls in what could be the most competitive elections since the end of apartheid.
There is a possibility that the ruling African National Congress (ANC) might lose its majority for the first time since Nelson Mandela led it to power three decades ago.
The national mood is grim due to high unemployment rates, significant inequality, frequent power cuts, water shortages, and pervasive violent crime.
Unlike their elders, younger generations do not share the same sense of loyalty to the ANC for its role in ending apartheid and establishing a multi-racial democracy.
Recent polls indicate that the ANC is garnering less than 50% of the national vote, a decrease from 57.5% in the 2019 elections.
This situation raises the prospect of South Africa’s first coalition government since the “government of national unity” during Mandela’s presidency, a period when the country was seen as a beacon of hope globally.
“I certainly think the ANC is not going to make 50%…
The best case seems to be 46-47%,” said David Everatt, a professor at the University of Witwatersrand who has conducted polls for the party since 1993.
“The mood is very, very low and many people attribute their unhappiness directly to the ANC.”
Despite significant improvements since 1994, such as increased access to quality housing, electricity, and running water, the rising unemployment rate, corruption scandals, and prolonged power cuts have led many to feel that the government no longer serves their interests.
Even Mandela’s home village of Qunu no longer has piped water.
In a 2022 poll by Afrobarometer, over 80% of South Africans felt the country was heading in the wrong direction, and four out of ten adults were unemployed.
Joy Reabetswe, a funeral insurance seller, accused ANC politicians of hoarding state resources for themselves.
Reabetswe, 18, who is saving for a law degree, said voting had not crossed her mind.
President Cyril Ramaphosa “could do better,” she commented, outside a supermarket in Diepsloot, a poor township on Johannesburg’s northern fringes.
She mentioned that while the Democratic Alliance (DA), the largest opposition party, might help South Africans, it is often accused of favoring white interests, a charge it denies.
The DA, led by John Steenhuisen, who took over in 2019, historically emerged from the merger of the anti-apartheid Democratic Party and the New National Party.
“How do we trust them?” Reabetswe asked about the DA.
“How do we know they won’t take us back to apartheid?”
The DA received 20.8% of the vote in 2019, and few analysts predict a significant increase this year.
There is also skepticism about the Multi-Party Charter, an alliance formed by the DA with ten smaller parties, only four of which have elected representatives.
Other opposition parties, like the Marxist-inspired Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) led by Julius Malema, could also perform well.
The EFF, which garnered nearly 11% of the vote in 2019, appeals to young voters like 19-year-old Petronella from Hillbrow, who said, “I’ll definitely vote EFF.
They stand for people and they keep their word.”
Meanwhile, the new uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party, named after the ANC’s armed wing during apartheid and led by former president Jacob Zuma, complicates the political landscape, particularly in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), Zuma’s stronghold.
Zuma, barred from running for parliament, continues to feud with Ramaphosa, which may benefit the MK party.
“KZN is definitely the battlefield,” said Mbali Ntuli, a former DA politician now leading the non-partisan Ground Work Collective.
“There are a lot of people who are doing a grudge vote against the ANC by voting for the MK.”
Despite the challenges, the ANC might still scrape a slim majority, thanks to its formidable electoral machine, liberation history, and the advantages of incumbency.
“The ANC has what we call ‘struggle credentials’,” said Kealeboga Maphunye, a professor of African politics at the University of South Africa.
Polls often underestimate the ANC’s rural support base, and many voters remain undecided, he noted.
“The advantages of incumbency are also very important,” Maphunye added.
The ANC can leverage state resources to influence undecided voters, especially at the last minute.
