Kenya’s trade performance in 2025 reflected a shifting global demand landscape, with strong export growth to African and European markets cushioning a sharp slowdown in Asia, even as the country’s reliance on imports intensified and the current account deficit widened.
According to the latest Economic Survey released by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, Africa remained Kenya’s largest export pillar, with earnings from the continent climbing 6.4% to KSh452.8 billion from KSh425.6 billion recorded the previous year.
The East African Community accounted for 77.6% of Kenya’s exports to Africa, with Uganda retaining its position as Kenya’s top export destination after shipments surged 28.8% to KSh162.4 billion.
The current account deficit, however, widened to KSh373.3 billion in 2025 from KSh285.5 billion in 2024 as import growth outpaced export gains, compounded by weaker secondary income inflows.
Within Africa, the Democratic Republic of the Congo emerged as another key growth market, with exports increasing 16.8% to KSh37.1 billion, largely driven by cigarettes, sugar confectionery, lubricants and re-exported petroleum products.
South Africa also posted solid gains, with exports rising 17.9%, while Zambia and several smaller African economies registered moderate growth.
Europe provided Kenya with a second major export buffer. Exports to the continent grew to KSh264 billion in 2025 from KSh246.9 billion the previous year, supported by broad-based demand across Western Europe.
Italy led the surge with exports jumping 50.2%, followed by Belgium at 32.8%, France at 18.7%, and Germany at 12.2%. The growth was mainly fuelled by higher-value agricultural exports, particularly coffee, macadamia nuts and vegetable oils.
Exports to Eastern Europe also strengthened, with Kazakhstan nearly doubling imports from Kenya to KSh14.7 billion, largely on the back of tea exports.
Despite the gains elsewhere, Asia emerged as the biggest drag on Kenya’s export performance. Exports to the region fell 13.2% to KSh275.7 billion amid sharp contractions across major markets.
Exports to China dropped 35.7%, while Saudi Arabia declined 38.3%, United Arab Emirates fell 23.3%, India slipped 8.3%, and Yemen plunged 66.4%. The decline was linked to weaker exports of tea, titanium ores, macadamia nuts and re-exported jet fuel.
Trade with the Americas also weakened. Total exports to the region dipped 4.4% to KSh90.1 billion. The United States, Kenya’s largest market in the Americas, recorded a 10.3% decline to KSh79.7 billion due to reduced exports of apparel, titanium ores and jet fuel re-exports.
By contrast, Canada stood out with export growth of 82.3% to KSh4.8 billion, driven largely by increased coffee shipments.
Imports Push Trade Gap Higher
Kenya’s dependence on Asian imports deepened significantly in 2025, with the region accounting for 70% of the country’s total import bill, up from 66.4% a year earlier.
China remained Kenya’s single largest import source at KSh671.2 billion, supplying machinery, fertilisers, steel products and industrial inputs.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates continued to dominate petroleum supplies, while imports from India reached KSh293 billion, mainly from petroleum products and motorcycles. Japan and Malaysia also increased exports of industrial equipment and refined goods to Kenya.
Meanwhile, Europe’s share of Kenya’s imports weakened sharply, falling to KSh347.1 billion from KSh411.9 billion. Imports from the Netherlands and Belgium declined significantly, particularly refined fuel products, while trade with the United Kingdom and Eastern Europe also slowed.
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Imports from Russia dropped to KSh33.3 billion due to lower purchases of wheat and fertilisers.
The Americas also posted weaker import figures, with imports declining 15.2% to KSh182.4 billion. The United States remained the region’s leading exporter to Kenya at KSh135.9 billion, although lower imports of helicopters and industrial machinery contributed to the downturn.
Brazil saw reduced agricultural exports to Kenya, particularly sugar, while Argentina partially offset the decline through modest export growth.
Imports from Africa rose moderately to KSh283.5 billion, driven by stronger inflows from Eswatini, Uganda and Egypt, especially sugar and food commodities.
Trade with Tanzania softened, with Tanzanian exports to Kenya falling 14%, while imports from Kenya declined 5.3%.
At the same time, diaspora remittances fell to KSh661.2 billion, adding pressure to Kenya’s balance of payments position.
Although merchandise exports edged up to KSh1.685 trillion, supported by coffee, horticulture and vegetable oils, the gains were outweighed by a ballooning import bill of KSh3.063 trillion driven by fuel, vehicles, machinery and steel imports.
