The upcoming debate in Atlanta between Joe Biden and Donald Trump on Thursday night is poised to become one of the most consequential presidential debates in American history.
For the first time, a sitting president and a former president will face off before millions of viewers in a debate occurring much earlier than usual—prior to the party conventions.
This CNN-hosted event represents a critical juncture in a closely contested election, offering Biden a prime opportunity to invigorate his reelection campaign, which faces significant challenges as he attempts to prove to voters that he has delivered on the political and economic stability promised in 2020.
The significance of this debate can only be fully appreciated within the context of today’s unprecedented political climate. Since the first televised debate between Sen. John F. Kennedy and Vice President Richard Nixon in the 1960 campaign, the US has seen tight elections that have profoundly impacted the nation’s direction.
However, the stakes in 2024 are exceptionally high due to Trump’s efforts to undermine the peaceful transfer of power with unfounded fraud claims in the 2020 election and his promise to implement a presidency driven by personal vendettas if he wins in November.
Had Sen. John Kerry defeated President George W. Bush in 2004 or former Massachusetts Gov.
Mitt Romney unseated President Barack Obama in 2012, significant political shifts would have occurred.
However, the fundamental nature of the republic and its global stance would have remained intact. That assurance cannot be confidently applied to the current election.
Trump’s authoritarian tendencies—exemplified by his claim before the Supreme Court that presidents possess near-limitless power, coupled with plans for hardline policies on immigration, the economy, and foreign policy—suggest that a second term could bring unprecedented disruption.
“(It is) unbelievably historic. You cannot (over) hype up the importance of this,” presidential historian Douglas Brinkley told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer on Wednesday.
Democrats are eagerly hoping for the 81-year-old Biden to demonstrate vigor and acuity amid concerns about his age.
Meanwhile, 78-year-old Trump’s greatest liability may be himself, with the potential for a debate performance that confirms Biden’s portrayal of him as too “unhinged” to be president.
Biden is likely to target Trump on abortion—a rare policy area where he outpolls the former president—and Trump’s admiration for foreign dictators.
Trump, on the other hand, is expected to depict Biden’s America in dystopian terms, plagued by uncontrolled immigration, rampant crime, and economic distress.
The most extraordinary aspect of this debate is that it comes less than a month after Trump was convicted in a criminal hush money case in New York.
Biden has already emphasized the guilty verdict in his campaign, while Trump claims to be a victim of a legal system weaponized to influence the election.
Both candidates are under immense pressure.
Both candidates aim to avoid debate blunders or awkward personal quirks that could go viral and shape public perception of the debate’s winner and loser.
Historical examples like Vice President Al Gore’s theatrical sighs in 2000 and President George H.W. Bush’s glance at his watch in 1992 show how such moments can impact campaigns.
The stakes are even higher now due to social media.
Presidential debates don’t always determine the election outcome, but the heightened tension surrounding this year’s early debate is unmistakable.
“The closer the election, the greater the chance that a debate could influence it,” said Aaron Kall, director of debate at the University of Michigan, who has studied every presidential debate in depth.
“A lot of times these mistakes reaffirm a caricature of one of the particular candidates that existed before it happened.”
For Biden, this means avoiding senior moments, while Trump needs to steer clear of outbursts that would validate Biden’s depiction of him as a tyrant in waiting.
Neither Trump nor Biden has debated since their final clash in the pandemic-disrupted 2020 campaign. Their preparations reflect their respective characters and political personas.
Biden has been secluded at the Camp David retreat with advisers, preparing for the debate through mock sessions, briefing binders, and strategic discussions to handle the most challenging opponent in history.
Fueled by lasagna and tacos, Biden’s debate camp reflects his view that this election is an existential duel for the soul of the nation.
Trump, disliking mock debates, has prepared by honing his instincts and political intuition at rallies and events, with policy refresher sessions with aides and potential vice-presidential picks like Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.
Biden has elevated the stakes for himself by branding Trump as a criminal and too dangerous to be re-elected.
He has condemned Trump’s use of Nazi-style language and emphasized that democracy and freedom are on the ballot, along with the capacity of ‘We the People’ to shape America’s destiny.
Preparing for anything at Camp David
Biden’s debate team, led by former White House chief of staff Ron Klain, who has been prepping Democrats for presidential debates for years, follows the mantra, “while you can lose a debate any time, you can only win it in the first 30 minutes.”
Thus, Biden is expected to present his key points early in the primetime event.
Biden’s team has analyzed Trump’s recent public interviews and speeches, preparing responses for any surprises from Trump or the moderators.
The president is ready for whichever version of Trump appears—whether it’s the bombastic opponent from their first 2020 debate or a more restrained challenger.
Biden has practiced attacks and rebuttals designed to provoke Trump into outbursts that could alienate voters.
A Biden adviser told CNN that preparations include responses if Trump gets personal, especially regarding Biden’s son Hunter, who was recently convicted of felony gun charges.
Biden’s protective instinct for his family is strong, and he reacted angrily when Trump brought up Hunter during their first 2020 debate.
Biden has been practicing in a large hangar at Camp David, with a mock debate stage and aides playing the roles of Trump and CNN moderators Dana Bash and Jake Tapper.
However, the debate preparation is not just about comfort; it’s also about addressing concerns about Biden’s age.
His aides frequently cite his March State of the Union address as a model of Biden at his best, where he was energetic, focused, and sharp during the 67-minute speech.
Trump’s unconventional debate prep
Sitting presidents often struggle in initial debates because they are unaccustomed to being challenged.
However, Trump’s refusal to debate his GOP primary rivals this year may weaken his advantage.
His aggressive style remains consistent with his usual public demeanor.
Trump has prepared for the debate by suggesting Biden will be “jacked up” on drugs, while his aides downplay expectations, portraying Biden as barely coherent.
In any other era, such accusations would be unthinkable, but Trump’s tactics reflect a presidency that has shattered norms.
In a new memo on Wednesday, Trump’s campaign indicated that he would attack Biden on immigration and the economy, citing polling averages showing Trump leading in key states.
Trump, known for his falsehoods, has accused Biden of lying, calling him “a walking lying machine and a fact-checker’s dream” on Truth Social, while mockingly claiming Biden, an accomplished golfer, can’t hit a ball 10 yards.
Trump’s unorthodox approach could remind the nation of the chaos and discord of his presidency, which his supporters embrace.
However, it also poses a risk that could highlight the contrast between Trump and Biden, potentially benefiting Biden’s campaign.
Former Obama speechwriter Terry Szuplat noted that successful debate performances convey a coherent story about the country’s direction.
“It’s a story about yourself. Why you’re the right candidate.
Why the other candidate is the wrong candidate. And it’s a story about the future.
Every election is about the future.
It’s a choice about the future,” Szuplat told CNN’s Kasie Hunt.
Neither Trump nor Biden has yet achieved this goal.
Thursday’s debate is their best opportunity to do so.