The African National Congress (ANC) is on track to lose its parliamentary majority for the first time in three decades, according to partial election results released on Thursday.
Voters have penalized the party, historically linked to Nelson Mandela, for years of economic and political decline.
Despite this setback, the ANC is expected to remain the largest political force, potentially leading to its first coalition government in post-apartheid South Africa.
With 42.1% of polling stations reporting, the ANC had secured 42.7% of the votes in Wednesday’s election.
This marks a significant decline from the 57.5% it received in 2019. If this trend continues, the ANC may struggle to form a majority coalition and face tough choices among three rival parties.
“The ANC is in a trilemma,” said political analyst Sizwe Mpofu-Walsh.
Partial results from the electoral commission show the pro-business Democratic Alliance (DA) in second place with 23.6% of the vote.
The new party uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK), led by former president Jacob Zuma, received 10%, cutting into ANC support, especially in KwaZulu-Natal, Zuma’s home province and an ANC stronghold.
MK also outpaced the radical left Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), which garnered 9.5%.
Zuma, who resigned as president in 2018 amid multiple scandals, supports MK, named after the ANC’s armed wing from the apartheid era.
However, he is barred from parliamentary candidacy due to a prison sentence.
“MK is the reason why the ANC is getting less than 50%,” said Oscar Van Heerden, senior research fellow at the Centre for African Diplomacy and Leadership at the University of Johannesburg.
Since the end of white minority rule in 1994, the ANC has won every national election.
However, recent years have seen the party plagued by corruption scandals, economic stagnation, rising unemployment, poverty, and failing infrastructure, leading to frequent power outages.
Pollsters and two of South Africa’s three main broadcasters predict that the final results will confirm the ANC’s loss of its majority.
Mosotho Moepya, chairperson of the Independent Electoral Commission, urged caution in interpreting the early results.
“At the moment we are trying to deal with a picture that is half-baked, maybe not even half-baked. It’s still in the oven,” Moepya said at a news briefing at the national counting center.
South Africa’s proportional voting system means the share of votes determines the number of seats in the National Assembly, which then elects the president.
This could still be the ANC’s leader, incumbent President Cyril Ramaphosa. However, a poor election outcome might provoke a leadership challenge.
Investors and the business community are worried about potential coalitions with the EFF, which advocates for land seizure and the nationalization of mines and banks, or with Zuma’s MK.
Both Zuma and EFF leader Julius Malema are former ANC members who have clashed with its leadership.
While the DA aims to unseat the ANC, its leader John Steenhuisen has not ruled out a partnership to block a coalition involving the EFF or MK. “That would spook investors.
It would tank the economy. It would be a disaster for South Africa,” Helen Zille, chairperson of the DA’s federal council, told Reuters.
She added that the DA had not entered coalition talks with any parties.
The rand fell over 1% against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, and the broader equity index dropped almost 1.9%. Local and international bonds also came under pressure.
ANC Deputy Secretary-General Nomvula Mokonyane expressed surprise at the results in KwaZulu-Natal, where MK outperformed the ANC.
“It’s still early, we want to give ourselves the space to reflect. The race is not yet over,” she said.
Meanwhile, the MK party criticized “Ramaphosa’s dismal regime” and celebrated their performance.
By law, the electoral commission has seven days to declare full results, though it typically does so faster.
The new parliament must convene within 14 days of the final results being declared to elect the nation’s president.
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