On Sunday night, the far-right’s successes were not limited to France.
In Germany and Austria, populist right-wing parties made notable strides in the European elections.
Nevertheless, the pro-European center held its ground, resulting in a complex landscape for EU legislation.
In France, President Emmanuel Macron called for snap legislative elections following a significant defeat by Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally.
Meanwhile, in Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition experienced setbacks as the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) saw substantial gains.
The Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union, now in opposition, led with 30.9% of the vote according to preliminary results.
The AfD increased its share from 11% in 2019 to 14.2%, despite controversies, including a scandal involving its lead candidate defending the Nazi SS.
Scholz’s Social Democratic Party dropped to 14.6%, below its previous lowest result in 2019, based on exit polls.
The Greens, who secured second place in 2019 with 20.5%, fell to fourth place with 12.8%.
In Italy, Prime Minister Georgia Meloni’s potential role as a political influencer was solidified as exit polls showed her hard-right Brothers of Italy party winning 26%-30% of the vote, ahead of the center-left’s 21%-25%.
Austria saw the far-right Freedom Party emerge as the leader with 25.7%, surpassing the conservative People’s Party and the Social Democrats, who garnered 24.7% and 23.2%, respectively.
In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders’ far-right party finished second behind a Left-Green alliance but did not meet expectations, capturing 17% of the vote compared to the alliance’s 21.1%, led by former EU Commission Vice-President Frans Timmermans.
Hungary’s Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party also fell short of expectations, with provisional results showing his coalition at 43.7%, below the 50% forecasted by opinion polls.
A new opposition party led by former ally Péter Magyar captured 30.7%.
Despite the rise of the far-right, mainstream pro-European parties are projected to retain a majority.
The center-right European People’s Party (EPP), which also led in Spain and Poland, secured the most seats, bolstering the prospects of Ursula von der Leyen for a second term as European Commission president.
“There remains a majority in the centre for a strong Europe and that is crucial for stability.
In other words the centre is holding,” von der Leyen stated.
She noted that the extremes on both sides had gained support, placing “great responsibility on the parties in the centre.”
Socialists achieved the highest vote shares in Malta, Romania, and Sweden, maintaining their position as the parliament’s second-largest group, though they are weaker compared to the 1990s when they led more governments.
Projections based on final and provisional results suggested the EPP, Socialists and Democrats, the centrist Renew group, and the Greens would secure 462 of the 720 seats, a 64.1% share compared to their previous 69.2% in the smaller outgoing parliament.
The Greens, however, did not back von der Leyen in 2019 and were not part of her platform.
The narrowing majorities for mainstream pro-European parties might hinder the passage of ambitious climate laws.
Von der Leyen’s re-election will require navigating a challenging landscape, needing support from at least 361 of the new parliament members, with 10%-15% of MEPs typically voting outside their groups.
Manfred Weber, the German Christian Democrat MEP and leader of the EPP, stated that his group had become the “stabilising” force in Europe, countering the far-right’s rise in Germany, France, and Austria.
“Voters are not opting for this extreme right positioning,” Weber remarked.
“In France and Germany, that is a domestic situation, but we are increasing our seats and that is helping us stabilise the centre.”
Bas Eickhout, a Dutch MEP and one of the Green’s lead candidates, expressed disappointment with the results in Germany.
“In 2019, we had 10%. We knew we would not reach that.
I think if we are around 7% or 8%, that would still be a pretty good result for us,” he told reporters.
Nonetheless, the Greens gained strength in Croatia, Slovenia, Latvia, and became the largest party in Denmark, showing mixed results.
In Poland, the EPP performed well with Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition at 38.2%, ahead of the far-right Law and Justice party at 33.9%, who had been defeated in the 2023 national elections.
In Spain, the center-right Popular Party led with 32.4%, just ahead of the governing Socialists at 30.2%, with the far-right Vox party poised to gain seats.
