Intergovernmental Authority for Development (IGAD) has predicted delayed onset of rain in the next three months, the period when farmers are preparing for plantation.
This comes after almost three years of persistent drought in the Greater Horn of Africa.
The March to May season constitutes an important rainfall season, especially in the equatorial parts of the GHA which contributes up to 60 percent of the total annual rainfall.
Dr. Guleid Artan, ICPAC Director, explained that “even if the general conditions for the season do not look favorable, people can still take advantage of rainfall. This is why I urge all to consult our weekly and monthly forecasts which have a high degree of predictability.”
IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (IPAC) announced depressed rainfall and high temperatures in the 2023 season after examining the forecast for March to May.
“In parts of Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, and Uganda that have been most affected by the recent drought, this could be the sixth failed consecutive rainfall season,” IGAD said in a statement Wednesday.
According to the forecaster, the probability of drier-than-normal rainfall is also enhanced for parts of Rwanda, Burundi, eastern Tanzania, and western South Sudan.
However, wetter-than-normal conditions are expected over the cross-border areas of Ethiopia and South Sudan, northwestern Kenya, and parts of central and southern Tanzania.
IPAC predicated warmer than normal temperatures across the region, particularly over Djibouti, Eritrea, Sudan, north-western South Sudan, southern and north-eastern Ethiopia, northern Somalia, northern and western Kenya, and parts of south-eastern and western Tanzania.
IGAD said close to 23 million people are currently highly food insecure in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia.
“It is likely that the situation in the affected areas will intensify through the transition period to MAM 2023.”
Gebeyehu called for an immediate scaling-up of humanitarian and risk reduction efforts following the adverse impacts of the ongoing drought.
“National governments, humanitarian and development actors must adopt a no-regret approach before it’s too late, Gebeyehu said.
IGAD also announced the launch of a partnership with the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) to address the multi-faceted crisis in the IGAD region.
“These prolonged and recurrent climates change-induced droughts will further worsen other existing, mutually exacerbating humanitarian challenges in the region, including the ongoing hunger crisis, the impacts of COVID-19, and internal displacement. We need an all-hands-on-deck approach to strengthen food systems, livelihoods, and climate resilience,” Mohammed Mukhier, IFRC Director for Africa said.
