Two top leaders of Mexico’s Sinaloa drug cartel were arrested by US agents in Texas in a dramatic operation that did not involve Mexican authorities.
Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, a co-founder of the cartel, was taken into custody alongside Joaquin Guzman Lopez, son of the infamous Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman, who is already imprisoned in the US.
Zambada pleaded not guilty to drug charges in a US court the day after his arrest.
The arrest of these high-profile figures raises questions about its implications on the Sinaloa cartel and drug trafficking.
While the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) chief Anne Milgram stated that Zambada’s capture “strikes at the heart of the cartel responsible for the majority of drugs, including fentanyl and methamphetamine, killing Americans from coast to coast,” experts believe the impact on the cartel itself might be minimal.
Analysts from the InSight Crime think tank described the arrest as “an important but mostly symbolic victory” since Zambada had already stepped back from day-to-day operations.
The effect on drug smuggling to the US is expected to be limited.
Vanda Felbab-Brown from the Brookings Institute noted that the Sinaloa cartel has robust systems in place to continue operations, and other cartel members, including two of El Chapo’s sons, remain at large.
Even if the Sinaloa cartel weakens, the rival Jalisco New Generation cartel could step in to maintain the flow of drugs to the US.
The arrests might lead to an increase in cartel violence. The Sinaloa cartel is already involved in violent conflicts with rival groups and within its factions.
This could intensify as rival groups and factions try to seize opportunities, potentially leading to a surge in criminal violence in Mexico, which could spill over into the US.
Diplomatic repercussions are also likely.
The Mexican government was not informed about the operation beforehand, echoing past grievances about being kept out of the loop on DEA activities.
This has strained relations between the two countries, with Mexico limiting the operations of foreign agents on its soil in the past.
Mike Vigil, a retired chief of international operations at the DEA, suggested that Washington did not inform Mexico until Zambada and Guzman Lopez were safely in US custody to avoid compromising the operation.
“If Mexico is informed, that information can be compromised in a minute,” Vigil explained.
Despite these tensions, Vigil believes the already strained relations cannot be damaged further by these arrests.
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