Good news for those who marveled at last weekend’s spectacular aurora borealis or missed it: more displays are likely on the way.
The massive sunspot cluster that unleashed energy and gas toward Earth is expected to rotate back toward us in about two weeks.
According to scientists, this cluster will probably remain large and complex enough to produce more explosions that could impact Earth’s magnetic field, resulting in additional Northern Lights.
Since last Saturday, the Sun has continued emitting increased radiation.
A significant solar flare on Tuesday disrupted high-frequency radio communications globally.
This hyperactive sunspot is not an isolated event.
The Sun is nearing its “solar maximum,” the peak of an 11-year cycle when solar activity is at its highest.
During this phase, the Sun’s magnetic poles flip, generating sunspots that emit material and create space weather.
This current solar cycle is the 25th since systematic observations began in 1755.
Although initially predicted to be quiet, it is proving to be stronger than expected, say scientists.
The number of sunspots is used to estimate the cycle’s intensity, explains Krista Hammond, a space weather forecaster at the Met Office.
However, this number does not necessarily indicate the strength of storms when they reach Earth.
Last weekend’s geomagnetic storm was a rare, one-in-30-year event, the most intense since 2003, according to Sean Elvidge, a professor in space environment at the University of Birmingham.
Triggered by at least five coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in quick succession, the storm took about 18 hours to reach Earth, where the CMEs interacted with our magnetic field.
Our magnetosphere shields us from powerful radiation, crucial for life on Earth.
The storm was so intense it received a G5 alert rating, the highest from forecasters at the Met Office and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Reports of global communication disruptions, power grid stress, and GPS issues have surfaced.
Ian Muirhead, a space systems researcher at the University of Manchester, explains the broader implications:
“We’re much more technologically dependent now than we were even in the last major storm in 2003.
A lot of our services come from space – we don’t even realize – it’s the glue that holds together a lot of our economy.”
Elon Musk stated on X (formerly known as Twitter) that the storm put his Starlink satellites under significant pressure, with voltage spikes reported by the European Space Agency (ESA).
Satellites essential for GPS and navigation experienced signal disturbances due to the extra radiation, according to ESA.
A San Francisco to Paris flight was rerouted to avoid the stronger radiation over the Arctic, Dr. Elvidge explained. Farmers using high-precision GPS tractors reported issues, and John Deere warned users about outages.
A satellite operated by UK company Sen, which films Earth in high definition, was put into an “idle” state for four days, missing events like the wildfires in Canada.
Power grids also felt the impact, with extra current stressing electricity systems. In New Zealand, similar to the UK’s grid, circuits were turned off as a precaution to prevent equipment damage.
The UK National Grid reported no impact on electricity transmission, while the Energy Networks Association stated that precautions included ensuring extra backup generation to handle potential voltage fluctuations.
The government ranks extreme space weather as a greater risk than earthquakes or wildfires. On the national risk register, extreme space weather is rated “four” for likelihood and impact (where “one” is the lowest risk and “five” the highest).
An extreme space storm could cause deaths and injuries through power failures, warns the register.
Mobile back-up power generation would be required for extended periods while damaged electricity transformers are replaced, potentially taking months.
Urban areas might see power restored within hours, but remote areas could face months-long outages.
The worst-case scenario is a “Carrington-level event,” named after a massive solar storm in 1859 that created auroras so bright people thought it was daytime.
The storm caused fires and allowed telegraph operators to transmit messages even after disconnecting equipment.
Today, such an event could be catastrophic.
A Royal Academy of Engineering report states, “The general consensus is that a solar superstorm is inevitable, a matter not of ‘if’ but ‘when?’”
Fortunately, we now have forecasting and preparation on our side, says Dr. Elvidge.
Forecasters like Krista Hammond monitor satellites 24/7 for solar activity and issue alerts to governments and infrastructure providers well in advance.
Shawn Dahl, a space weather forecaster at NOAA, notes, “Our White House situation room is informed about it. Messages come down through our emergency channels to local governments.”
Despite dire warnings, the impacts of last weekend’s storm seemed limited, likely due to effective preparation. Ian Muirhead explains, “We are relatively well prepared for these.”
Local councils and emergency services test scenarios to ensure services like ambulance navigation remain functional if GPS is lost.
Power supply issues remain sensitive, with commercial implications possibly preventing companies from disclosing network stress levels.
Space weather forecasting is still in its infancy compared to atmospheric weather, but as we continue to study the Sun and deploy more equipment into space, our ability to predict and prepare for the next superstorm will improve.
