On Monday, Rwandans will head to the polls, with President Paul Kagame anticipated to extend his firm grip on power in a race that includes the same challengers from the previous election seven years ago.
Kagame, who has effectively governed Rwanda since the 1994 genocide, faces opposition from Frank Habineza of the Democratic Green Party—the only sanctioned opposition party—and Philippe Mpayimana, an independent candidate.
Kagame, now 66, is recognized for Rwanda’s economic revival post-genocide, with an impressive annual GDP growth averaging 7.2% from 2012 to 2022.
However, his administration has been criticized for suppressing political dissent within the country, and a UN report has implicated Rwandan troops in aiding the M23 rebel group in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Kagame has consistently secured victories in past elections, winning more than 93% of the vote in 2003, 2010, and 2017, with the last election seeing him achieve nearly 99% of the vote.
In contrast, Habineza garnered just 0.48% of the vote in 2017, with Mpayimana slightly ahead at 0.73%.
Efforts by opposition figures Bernard Ntaganda and Victoire Ingabire to have previous convictions overturned, which would have allowed them to run, were denied by Rwandan courts.
The election commission also disqualified prominent Kagame critic Diane Rwigara due to issues with her paperwork—marking her second exclusion from the presidential race.
Rwigara, the daughter of industrialist Assinapol Rwigara, a former key supporter of Kagame’s Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), faced accusations of document forgery and was arrested in 2017 before being acquitted a year later.
For the first time, the presidential election will coincide with legislative elections, with 9.01 million Rwandans registered to vote
‘President Forever’
During the three-week campaign period, Kagame’s dominance has been clear, with the RPF’s well-coordinated public relations efforts in full swing.
The streets are adorned with the ruling party’s colors and slogans, “Tora Kagame Paul” (“Vote Paul Kagame”) and “PK24” (for “Paul Kagame 2024”).
In contrast, Kagame’s rivals have struggled to gain traction, with some events attracting only around 100 attendees.
At a rally organized by Habineza’s party in the village of Juru, 30-year-old Beatrice Mpawenimana voiced her unwavering support for Kagame: “I came here to listen what he says but I will vote for Kagame… regardless of the others.
He has given us women a voice, he has brought roads, hospitals, so many things… I want him to be president forever, nobody can replace him.”
Kagame has been Rwanda’s leader for as long as many Rwandans can remember—65% of the population is under 30.
He has led the country since the RPF defeated the Hutu extremists responsible for the genocide that killed 800,000 people, mostly Tutsis and moderate Hutus.
‘No Real Opponent’
Initially serving as vice-president and defense minister, Kagame was appointed president by parliament in 2000 following Pasteur Bizimungu’s resignation.
He has since won three elections by universal suffrage: 95.05% in 2003, 93.08% in 2010, and 98.79% in 2017.
Rwandan constitutional lawyer and political analyst Louis Gitinywa told AFP, “The RPF ruling party is quite popular across the country, this is undeniable.
As for the election, it is like an exercise that must be done simply to tick a box.
There is no real opponent against Kagame.”
Human rights organizations accuse Kagame’s government of various abuses, including restricting freedom of expression and quashing dissent.
Amnesty International recently stated that Rwanda’s political opposition faces “severe restrictions… as well as threats, arbitrary detention, prosecution, trumped-up charges, killings and enforced disappearances.”
In 2015, Kagame oversaw controversial constitutional amendments that shortened presidential terms from seven to five years and reset the term limit clock, potentially allowing him to remain in power until 2034.