Kenya’s scheme that reserves public tenders for youth, women and persons with disabilities is experiencing a strong upswing, with new KNBS figures showing a sharp recovery in the value of contracts handed out across government.
The latest data indicates that awards jumped from KSh 25.86 billion in FY2022/23 to KSh 51.18 billion in FY2023/24, before inching up again to KSh 56.82 billion in FY2024/25. The turnaround ends a two-year decline blamed on post-COVID cutbacks, cash-flow bottlenecks at the Treasury and widespread procurement standstills.
The rebound coincides with a broader reopening of the public procurement pipeline in 2023/24, as ministries, agencies and county governments revived delayed purchases, dragging AGPO allocations upward as part of the wider recovery.
Under the AGPO framework, at least thirty per cent of all public procurement must go to enterprises owned by youth, women or persons with disabilities, giving these groups a dedicated window into government business.
A closer reading of the figures, however, suggests the resurgence has less to do with deep reforms within AGPO and more to do with the overall procurement cycle picking up speed again. When the state slowed spending, AGPO contracts fell with it. As expenditure bounced back, AGPO followed suit, underscoring the programme’s dependence on the general fiscal climate.
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Youth-owned businesses saw their awards jump from KSh 9.48 billion to KSh 16.89 billion, then to KSh 18.75 billion, with counties driving the surge. County governments alone accounted for more than KSh 7.6 billion in FY2024/25, making them the biggest channel for youth procurement. The wide annual swings suggest inconsistent planning and a reliance on a few big-ticket infrastructure-linked tenders that happen to fall in youth-registered firms’ favour. Ministries and state corporations improved too, but the erratic patterns show a cyclical rather than steady adherence to the 30 per cent rule.
Women-owned firms remain the backbone of the programme, absorbing KSh 33.12 billion in FY2024/25, almost sixty per cent of all AGPO spending. Their dominance is tied to higher rates of formal business registration by women’s groups, especially in supply and service sectors that feature heavily in government purchasing. State corporations delivered KSh 15.48 billion to women suppliers, nearly matching all county allocations put together, a sign that AGPO’s stability still hinges on a few large parastatals.
For enterprises owned by persons with disabilities, the data shows the fastest percentage growth but from a modest starting point: awards rose from KSh 2.90 billion in 2022/23 to KSh 4.95 billion in 2024/25. The low totals highlight long-standing barriers, including limited registration, challenges accessing digital tender systems and difficulties meeting technical requirements. In several counties and parastatals, allocations to PWD-owned firms remain negligible, pointing to box-ticking rather than meaningful inclusion.
The bigger picture is of a programme tightly tethered to government liquidity. When spending tightens, AGPO contracts shrink; when the purse opens, they revive. The trend suggests the framework still behaves more like an extension of the broader procurement cycle than a ring-fenced empowerment initiative with its own protections and targeted oversight.
