Globalisation hasn’t come to a standstill; it’s simply changing shape. The latest DHL Global Connectedness Tracker (2025) shows that international trade has reached historic highs, defying the gloomy forecasts of an unraveled world economy.
For Africa, and Kenya in particular, this renewed surge in cross-border exchange presents fresh opportunities, though it equally calls for a sharper strategy, especially from the financial sector.
Every upswing in trade brings a corresponding increase in financing needs, ranging from pre-export loans and working capital to risk guarantees and digital payment solutions.
Despite the political chatter about “deglobalisation,” the numbers tell a different tale. DHL’s report notes that global trade in goods during the first half of 2025 grew faster than in any comparable period since 2010 (excluding the post-pandemic rebound). Sub-Saharan Africa’s trade expanded by 9.6% year-on-year, signalling both endurance and deeper integration into global value chains.
“Trade barriers don’t serve the world’s best interests. But we should never underestimate the ingenuity of buyers and sellers determined to do business,” said John Pearson, CEO of DHL Express.
Contrary to popular belief, the world isn’t becoming disconnected; it’s becoming more networked.
While geopolitical rivalries and protectionist agendas have shifted certain trade routes, they’ve not undone globalisation. The DHL report reveals that three times as much trade now takes place among allied nations as between rivals, and the average trade distance has stretched to a record 4,990 kilometres. The trend is clear: nations are trading further, not less.
“Though policy risks to globalisation remain, firms aren’t retreating from international markets. Trade is now crossing longer distances than ever, and geopolitical frictions have altered only a small slice of global activity,” explained Prof. Steven A. Altman, Director of the DHL Initiative on Globalisation at NYU Stern.
For Africa, this evolution holds weight. As manufacturers diversify beyond Asia, new industrial and logistics centres are sprouting across Africa, from Morocco’s automotive corridors to Kenya’s special economic zones. With intra-regional trade hovering around 50.7%, countries that brand themselves as external trade gateways stand to gain the most.
Kenya’s location, robust Mombasa Port, rising industrial base, and AfCFTA membership make it a natural conduit for these global flows. DHL’s findings suggest that economies investing in logistics infrastructure, trade facilitation, and financial intermediation can position themselves firmly within this next wave of international commerce.
The Opportunities
This momentum offers a strategic opening for Kenya’s banking and financial sector. Each spike in trade sparks demand for innovative financing, from pre-export credit to supply-chain finance and digital payment systems. Yet, the African Development Bank estimates that the continent’s trade finance gap still surpasses US$80 billion. Bridging that deficit will determine whether Kenya merely benefits from trade expansion or becomes a continental anchor for it.
Banks that have historically focused on local lending can now tap into value from export-driven industries. Trade finance isn’t just about capital; it’s about building trust in cross-border exchanges, cushioning supply chains, and managing currency risk through regional settlement systems.
To truly seize the moment, Kenyan banks must rethink their playbook:
• Develop regionally aligned trade-finance products in sync with AfCFTA and digital customs systems.
• Use data and analytics (such as DHL’s distance insights) to pinpoint low-risk, high-reward trade corridors.
• Expand SME access to export finance via structured credit, factoring, and supply-chain lending.
• Forge cross-border banking partnerships to capture regional trade settlements and enhance currency liquidity.
Globalisation isn’t fading, it’s simply shifting gears. The future belongs to those who can read its patterns and adapt.
For Kenya, the real question isn’t whether to play on the global stage, but how, through strategic financing, smart risk management, and embedding innovation at the heart of banking operations.
