CBK says a survey of 1,000 chief executives has flagged growing supply chain risks tied to US tariffs.
At the same time, the findings suggest global growth prospects are likely to strengthen over the next year, underpinned by rising investment in artificial intelligence, supportive monetary policy, and new trade openings.
That optimism, however, is tempered by headwinds. Trade barriers and steep tariffs could slow momentum, while geopolitical tensions risk disrupting global supply chains and pushing up import costs. Add to that the strain posed by high global debt levels, and the outlook becomes more fragile.
The survey measured CEOs’ confidence in growth prospects for their own firms, their sectors, and both the Kenyan and global economies over the next 12 months.
According to the CBK report, Kenyan businesses remain broadly upbeat about the domestic economic outlook. This confidence is anchored in a relatively stable macroeconomic environment, characterised by steady inflation, stable exchange rates, and a continued easing of bank lending rates.
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The report also points to favourable weather expectations, increased public spending on infrastructure, and faster uptake of technology, particularly artificial intelligence, automation, and wider digital innovation, as key tailwinds.
Outlook for 2026
Looking ahead to 2026, many firms anticipate stronger demand and higher sales volumes during the quarter, while others expect output levels to hold steady.
The expected pickup in demand and sales growth is largely attributed to aggressive marketing efforts, including discounts, promotional deals, and intensive campaigns designed to clear leftover stock from the festive season.
Sales and input prices are generally forecast to remain fairly stable over the quarter. Even so, the report notes a risk of price increases as firms adjust upwards to absorb rising operating costs and safeguard profit margins.
Purchase prices may also come under pressure from higher commodity prices, influenced by both domestic and global market trends.
Employment levels, meanwhile, are expected to remain largely unchanged, with firms showing little appetite for expanding full-time staff numbers in the near term.
