A Manhattan jury has found Donald Trump guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records in a case involving hush-money payments.
The pressing question now is: what punishment will the former US president face?
The decision lies with Judge Juan Merchan, who presided over the trial.
The offenses Trump has been convicted of—falsifying business records in the first degree—are classified as class E felonies in New York.
These are the least severe felonies, carrying a maximum penalty of up to four years in prison. Sentencing is scheduled for July 11.
Experts suggest Trump is unlikely to receive a prison sentence.
As a first-time offender convicted of a non-violent crime, incarceration is considered improbable.
Cheryl Bader, a law professor at Fordham University, stated, “I think the judge would probably not incarcerate him under those circumstances alone.”
She added that Trump’s status as a former president with a Secret Service detail, along with his political significance as the presumptive Republican nominee, makes imprisonment logistically challenging and politically sensitive.
Punishment is more likely to involve fines, probation, community service, or a combination of these.
Karen Friedman Agnifilo, a former top prosecutor in the Manhattan district attorney’s office, suggested, “I would like to see community service – picking up trash on the subway.”
Judge Merchan’s view of Trump’s conduct, including any lack of remorse, will be crucial in determining the sentence.
Bader noted, “I can’t imagine we will see a remorseful, apologetic Trump if it comes time for sentencing.”
The judge might see the offense as a minor technical violation or as a significant wrongdoing with national implications, affecting the public’s right to an informed vote.
The jury was not given the option to convict Trump of a misdemeanor.
This choice was not requested by Trump’s attorneys, who could have asked Merchan to offer this option.
Both the prosecution and defense will submit sentencing recommendations, and the probation office will prepare a confidential presentencing report for the judge.
Trump is expected to appeal the verdict promptly, which would likely delay any punishment until the appeal process is completed.
This process could take months or even years.
Trump has 30 days to file a notice of appeal and six months to file a full appeal to the first judicial department.
If upheld, Trump could then appeal to the New York court of appeals and potentially the US Supreme Court, if a federal or constitutional question is involved.
Despite the conviction, Trump can still run for president, as the Constitution does not prohibit felons from running for office.
Whether he could serve as president from prison remains an untested scenario.
Additionally, Trump cannot pardon himself from state crimes.
The conviction is unlikely to affect Trump’s ability to vote in upcoming elections.
Florida, where he is registered, allows individuals with out-of-state convictions to vote if the convicting state permits it. In New York, individuals with felony convictions can vote as long as they are not incarcerated.
Judge Merchan’s handling of previous violations by Trump, including contempt of court fines, provides insight into his approach.
He is aware of the complexities and broader implications of incarcerating a former president.
On May 6, when issuing a $1,000 fine for contempt, Merchan emphasized, “Mr. Trump, it’s important to understand that the last thing I want to do is to put you in jail.
You are the former president of the United States and possibly the next president, as well.”
He elaborated on the logistical and political challenges of such a decision, while also emphasizing his duty to uphold the dignity of the judicial system.
