Kenya and Uganda have moved independently to calm nerves over fuel availability as conflict in the Middle East pushes global oil prices higher.
In Nairobi, Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi said a review of national reserves confirmed that Kenya holds adequate petroleum stocks to cover domestic needs and regional transit demand. Both Kenya and Uganda import all their refined petroleum from the Middle East, leaving them exposed to turbulence in that corridor.
In Kampala, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development together with the Uganda National Oil Company issued similar assurances, maintaining that Uganda’s supply chain remains stable despite volatility in international markets.
Wandayi noted that Kenya’s imports have already been secured through to the end of April 2026 under government to government supply agreements, shielding the market from immediate disruption. Officials say they are monitoring developments closely and coordinating with suppliers on contingency arrangements to maintain uninterrupted flows.
Uganda, which depends heavily on fuel routed through the Port of Mombasa, stressed that its suppliers draw from multiple source regions. That flexibility allows shipments initially scheduled through the Strait of Hormuz to be redirected if necessary. Authorities added that deliveries slated for March 2026 remain on track, with safeguards in place to manage short term shocks.
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For the wider region, Uganda’s supply stability serves as a barometer for the Northern Corridor energy network, which also feeds Rwanda, South Sudan and eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.
These reassurances come as Kenya’s Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority continues its monthly pump price adjustments, factoring in global refined product benchmarks, freight and insurance costs, the exchange rate of the Kenya shilling against the dollar, and domestic taxes. Even where physical supply is secure, persistent increases in global oil prices would filter into future price cycles through higher landed costs.
The caution from Nairobi and Kampala follows sharp reactions in oil markets to an escalating US Israeli confrontation with Iran. Israeli operations have reportedly extended beyond Gaza and Lebanon, while Iran is said to have targeted energy infrastructure in Gulf states and vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz.
That waterway carries roughly a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, making it one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. Reports of insurers withdrawing coverage for certain vessels and surging shipping rates have intensified concerns about possible disruptions.
Brent crude climbed more than three dollars on Tuesday for a third straight session, trading at 80.89 dollars per barrel by mid morning GMT after peaking at 82.37 dollars, its highest level since January 2025.
Kenya’s regulated pricing regime means sustained rises in international benchmarks, freight or insurance costs will eventually be reflected at the pump in subsequent EPRA reviews. Uganda, operating under a more liberalised system, would similarly adjust retail prices in line with import expenses.
For transporters, manufacturers and households, the joint messaging offers short term reassurance. Yet with a significant share of global oil passing through a single vulnerable passage, East African economies remain tightly bound to the shifting geopolitics of the Middle East.
