Kenya’s diaspora inflows softened in April 2026, with total remittances falling to KSh 51.39 billion (US$ 397.78 million). This represents a 5.9% decline compared to April 2025 and a steeper 11.7% drop from the record US$ 450.29 million recorded in March.
The decline was widespread across major sending regions, suggesting a normalisation after the previous month’s peak rather than a structural downturn.
North America, which remains the largest source of inflows at 52.2% of the total, registered the sharpest contraction, dropping 13.8% month-on-month to US$ 207.64 million. Europe also weakened, slipping 12.9% to US$ 81.78 million. The Rest of the World category, largely reflecting Gulf countries, declined more moderately by 6.2% to US$ 108.37 million.
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For the first four months of 2026, cumulative remittances stood at KSh 216.02 billion (US$ 1.67 billion), showing only marginal growth of 1% compared to the same period in 2025. This marks a notable slowdown from the 3.4% growth recorded at the end of the first quarter.
On a 12-month rolling basis, total inflows reached US$ 5.053 billion by April 2026, sitting just US$ 47 million below the Central Bank of Kenya’s revised annual target of US$ 5.1 billion. The Central Bank had earlier trimmed its 2026 projection from US$ 5.42 billion, citing risks tied to Gulf labour market disruptions linked to Middle East geopolitical tensions and policy changes, including Saudi Arabia’s 15% VAT on money transfers.
Despite the near-closure of the annual target gap, sustained softness in monthly inflows could still leave the year falling short of expectations.
Central Bank Governor Kamau Thugge maintains that the Gulf slowdown is temporary, projecting a recovery that supports an overall 4% growth in 2026 remittances. However, April’s figures do not yet reflect any meaningful rebound, with Gulf-related inflows still below their Q1 monthly average of US$ 111.23 million.
External risks remain a concern. A World Bank Africa Economic Update published in April 2026 warned that Kenya could lose up to US$ 40 million monthly in remittances from Gulf states due to ongoing conflict-related disruptions in the Middle East, including energy infrastructure risks and shipping bottlenecks around the Strait of Hormuz. While April data does not yet show a full shock, the vulnerability of this corridor remains evident.
Saudi Arabia, a key source of remittances, saw flows fall by 25.1% in 2025 to US$ 302.1 million from US$ 403.1 million in 2024. The decline has been attributed to policy changes, including the introduction of a 15% VAT and labour reforms that have affected employment contracts and wages for Kenyan workers abroad.
At the same time, Kenya’s foreign exchange reserves experienced notable volatility. They dropped from US$ 14.6 billion in early March to a low of US$ 13.23 billion in late April before recovering slightly to US$ 13.51 billion by mid-May. This equates to about 5.7 months of import cover. The sharp mid-period decline highlighted how sensitive external buffers remain to shifts in remittance and FX inflows, underscoring their continued importance to currency stability.
