The Kenya Human Rights Commission (KHRC) has warned that the expected El Niño rains could deepen human rights violations, particularly among vulnerable communities, unless the government places rights protection at the centre of its disaster preparedness and response.
In a statement issued on Monday, September 28, 2026, in Nairobi, KHRC called on the government to adopt a rights-based approach to the anticipated heavy rains expected between late September and December.
The commission cited Article 19(1) of the Constitution, which provides that the Bill of Rights is an integral part of Kenya’s democratic state and forms the framework for social, economic and cultural policies.
KHRC said strong El Niño conditions, combined with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, were expected to result in above-average rainfall across the country, with about 80 per cent of Kenya at risk of severe flooding.
It said all 47 counties could be affected, with Central Kenya, the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria basin and Western Kenya expected to experience some of the highest rainfall intensities.
The warning comes after the country experienced devastating floods in 2024. KHRC cited Human Rights Watch figures showing that by May 2, 2024, at least 170 people had died and more than 200,000 others had been displaced by floods.
The commission said the impact of flooding went beyond loss of life and destruction of property, with low-income communities facing heightened risks.
According to a 2024 survey by KHRC and the Elimu Bora Working Group, more than 62 primary schools were submerged, placing about 15,000 learners at risk of missing classes. The survey also documented 34 cholera cases along the Tana River and damage to more than 20,000 toilets.
KHRC said the overall student population in the surveyed schools declined by nine per cent, with female learners and students with special needs disproportionately affected.
The commission warned that evacuation, relocation and relief operations must not become avenues for forced evictions or other rights violations.
It cited the 2024 flood response, when police raided the Mathare Social Justice Centre and Ghetto Foundation offices in Nairobi and arrested 27 human rights defenders who were protesting the eviction of flood-affected residents.
KHRC also raised concerns over demolitions in Mukuru Kwa Reuben and Kiamaiko, saying bulldozers moved into the settlements before a 24-hour government deadline had expired and without adequate notice or consultation, leaving thousands homeless.
The commission said the incidents raised questions about whether poor and vulnerable communities received equal protection compared with wealthier areas affected by flooding.
KHRC also called for greater scrutiny of emergency expenditure.
It said Kenya had secured about Sh51.8 billion from the World Bank’s Rapid Response Option to prepare for the rains, amid public debt estimated at Sh12.05 trillion, equivalent to 67.3 per cent of GDP.
The commission warned that emergency conditions should not be used to circumvent procurement laws and public oversight.
It cited the COVID-19 response as a cautionary example, referring to an Auditor-General’s report that identified Sh2.3 billion in irregular procurement of medical supplies at the Kenya Medical Supplies Authority (KEMSA).
KHRC urged the government to ensure that evacuation and relocation programmes do not result in forced or arbitrary evictions or extrajudicial killings.
It further called for the protection of human rights defenders and community organisations monitoring the flood response, continued access to healthcare, clean water, sanitation and education, and equitable and accountable distribution of humanitarian assistance.
The commission also demanded that the government publicly disclose information on financing, procurement and expenditure related to the El Niño response in an accessible format.
It wants the government to provide updates on previous flood interventions, including commitments made to compensate victims of the 2024 floods.
As part of its response, KHRC said it was establishing a human rights monitoring and response centre to document emerging governance and rights issues arising from actions by state and non-state actors during the rainy season.
The commission urged members of the public to report alleged human rights violations linked to the flood response through 0722 264 497 or 0733 629 034.
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