Kenya’s export sector is facing mounting pressure as the ongoing crisis in the Middle East disrupts global trade routes, driving up costs and delaying shipments, the government has warned.
According to Trade Cabinet Secretary Lee Kinyanjui, the instability in the region is putting at risk an estimated Sh164.6 billion worth of Kenya’s annual exports to the Middle East—one of the country’s fastest-growing and most strategic markets.
Kenya recorded a historic Sh1.1 trillion in export earnings in 2024, buoyed by strong performance in horticulture, tea, apparel and emerging manufacturing sectors. However, the crisis is now threatening to reverse these gains, particularly for time-sensitive exports.
The Middle East plays a critical role not only as a destination market but also as a global logistics and transshipment hub linking Kenya to Europe, Asia and North America.
Disruptions along key maritime and air cargo routes, especially through the Red Sea and Gulf corridors, have significantly slowed trade flows.
Shipping delays have increased transit times by between 10 and 20 days, while air cargo disruptions of up to 48 hours are affecting perishable exports such as flowers, fresh produce and meat.
Freight costs have also surged, further eroding exporters’ competitiveness.
Industry data shows that floriculture exporters are incurring weekly losses due to spoilage, while meat exports in some cases have dropped to less than five percent of normal volumes.
Tea exports—of which up to 35 percent are destined for the Middle East—are also facing declining prices and uncertain market access.
The crisis has further driven up global oil prices, increasing the cost of production and transportation.
Fuel accounts for as much as 50 percent of logistics costs, compounding the burden on exporters across multiple value chains, including dairy and specialty coffee.
There are also concerns over the broader economic impact, including potential disruptions in labour markets across the Gulf region, where more than 400,000 Kenyans are employed.
Any slowdown could affect diaspora remittances, a key source of foreign exchange for the country.
In response, the government has rolled out a series of measures aimed at cushioning exporters and stabilizing trade.
These include a temporary reduction of VAT on petroleum products from 16 percent to 8 percent to ease fuel costs.
Authorities have also activated a multi-agency framework to monitor fuel pricing, freight charges and supply chain stability, with a focus on protecting priority sectors such as horticulture, tea, coffee, livestock and manufacturing.
To sustain export flows, the government is working with airlines, including Kenya Airways, and international logistics partners to secure alternative cargo routes.
Efforts are also underway to improve efficiency at key entry and exit points such as Port of Mombasa and Lamu Port.
At the same time, Kenya is accelerating plans to diversify export markets beyond the Middle East, targeting Asia, Europe and Latin America, while strengthening regional trade ties within Africa.
Trade blocs such as the East African Community, Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa and the African Continental Free Trade Area are expected to play a key role in expanding market access and building long-term resilience.
“The government remains committed to protecting Kenyan farmers, manufacturers and exporters while ensuring continuity of trade in an increasingly complex global environment,” Kinyanjui said.
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