The Treasury has raised concerns that weak traffic volumes on planned toll roads could trigger compensation payments to private investors, should revenues fail to meet agreed thresholds. The risks relate to the Nairobi–Nakuru–Mau Summit and Nairobi–Maai Mahiu–Naivasha highways.
In the 2026 Budget Policy Statement, the Finance ministry lists the exposure as a contingent liability linked to the Sh150 billion public-private partnership programme the government intends to roll out ahead of the next general election. Such liabilities would only crystallise if traffic demand and toll revenues underperform.
The Treasury also flagged the possibility of future renegotiations once the toll roads are operational, describing this as another source of hidden fiscal risk. The two highways are among the large-scale PPP projects scheduled for implementation in the current financial year ending June 2027 and are expected to attract about Sh65 billion in private capital.
According to the Budget Policy Statement tabled in the National Assembly, the projects face risks stemming from uncertain traffic demand, revenue shortfalls and potential renegotiation pressures.
Under the plan, the government will upgrade the 175-kilometre Rironi–Mau Summit corridor, alongside the Rironi–Maai Mahiu–Naivasha (A8 South) and Naivasha–Gilgil sections, through a 30-year concession. Private investors will collect toll fees to recoup an estimated investment of between Sh184 billion and Sh200 billion.
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The investor group includes a consortium involving China Road and Bridge Corporation, the National Social Security Fund and Shandong Hi-Speed. However, the Treasury cautioned that these projects, like more than 30 other PPPs in the pipeline, expose the State to significant fiscal risks.
It added that inflation and exchange-rate volatility could also translate into government obligations if risk-sharing arrangements are not strictly enforced.
As part of its privately initiated proposal, the CRBC–NSSF consortium conducted traffic surveys on the Nairobi–Malaba corridor and the 58-kilometre Rironi–Maai Mahiu–Naivasha stretch between October 22 and October 28, 2024.
