Liberty Kenya Holdings Plc has flagged a sharp drop in earnings for 2025, warning shareholders that profit after tax is expected to decline by at least 25% year on year, weighed down by weaker investment returns, rising claims and a one-off accounting hit linked to its exit from Heritage Insurance Tanzania.
The insurer posted profit after tax of KSh 1.40 billion in 2024, meaning the anticipated slide points to a minimum reduction of roughly KSh 350 million based on preliminary, unaudited figures. In a market notice, the company attributed the outlook to pressure on both underwriting performance and investment income over the year, though it stopped short of publishing detailed numbers.
The warning comes after a strong recovery in 2024, when Liberty more than doubled earnings from KSh 672 million in 2023, marking one of its best recent performances.
According to the board, the projected downturn reflects lower investment yields compared with the previous year, a heavier claims burden across the book, and an accounting loss arising from the disposal of its Tanzanian stake. While the sale formed part of a strategy to streamline regional operations, it had a negative effect on reported earnings. The group said the size of the loss and any cash flow implications will be disclosed with the release of audited results.
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Last year’s rebound had been supported by stronger investment income, fair value gains and improved insurance service results following the adoption of IFRS 17, which also led to restated comparative figures.
Despite the profit warning, Liberty said it remains profitable and financially sound, with all subsidiaries meeting regulatory capital and liquidity thresholds. The board maintained that the balance sheet remains solid.
The company’s shares were unchanged at KSh 10.30 in early Monday trading, showing little immediate market reaction to the announcement.
Liberty Kenya’s earnings track record has been notably volatile, underscoring its exposure to claims cycles and market movements. Profit after tax slid to KSh 81.8 million in 2021, before recovering to KSh 378.7 million in 2022 and KSh 672 million in 2023, ahead of the peak recorded in 2024.
