China is grappling with a deepening demographic challenge as it witnesses a second consecutive year of record-low birthrates, resulting in a notable decline in its overall population.
The National Bureau of Statistics revealed that in 2023, the total number of people in China decreased by 2.75 million, or 0.2%, reaching 1.409 billion.
This decline surpassed the previous year’s drop of approximately 850,000, marking the first population decline since the Mao-era famines.
The statistics for 2023 paint a concerning picture, with total deaths rising by 6.6% to 11.1 million.
This surge in mortality rates, reaching levels not seen since 1974 during the cultural revolution, is juxtaposed with a 5.7% decrease in new births, totaling 9.02 million.
The birthrate, at 6.39 births per 1,000 people, stands as the lowest ever recorded, down from 6.77 births in 2022.
China’s prolonged struggle with an aging population stems from past population control policies, notably the one-child policy, and a growing reluctance among young adults to start families.
In 2023, China lost its status as the world’s most populous nation to India, according to UN estimates.
Officials in China are deeply concerned about the potential economic consequences of this demographic shift.
The rising costs of elderly care and financial support, coupled with a diminishing population of working taxpayers, pose a significant challenge.
The Chinese Academy of Sciences predicts that the pension system, as it currently stands, will exhaust its funds by 2035.
This looming crisis coincides with an expected increase in the number of individuals above 60 years old, the national retirement age, from approximately 280 million to 400 million.
Despite various policies aimed at encouraging childbirth, many have failed to yield results.
Local governments, dealing with budget shortfalls after years of implementing resource-intensive zero-Covid systems, have struggled to effectively implement these policies.
Factors such as high living costs, inadequate support for women in the workforce, and traditional gender roles contribute to the reluctance to have children.
He Dan, director of the China Population and Development Research Center, highlighted the disparity between policies and public expectations, stating that despite efforts, the public’s expectations are still unmet.
Some demographers are proposing additional reforms to fertility support policies, hoping for a potential baby boom in 2024, possibly due to post-pandemic factors or the Chinese zodiac year of the dragon, starting in February.
While some online discussions suggest anecdotal evidence of increased pregnancies, skepticism remains, with concerns about the challenges a sudden surge in births could pose to the highly competitive college entrance exam system.
Amid these discussions, some voices express a personal choice not to have children, citing self-love and a desire to spare future generations from potential suffering in financially strained families.
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