Global trade has endured four straight years of disruption yet remains fundamentally resilient, with the Middle East and Africa emerging as key beneficiaries of a major reshaping of global supply chains, according to Citi’s 2026 Supply Chain Financing report.
The study, titled “Durable Global Trade in the Age of AI,” draws on Citi’s proprietary supply chain pressure index, payment data from over US$5 trillion in daily transactions, and insights from 710 multinational corporations.
Between 2019 and 2024, shipments from North and East Asia to the Middle East and Africa surged by 52% as exporters increasingly diversified beyond Western markets. China’s exports to the region jumped 61%, with Saudi Arabia standing out as a major destination. At the same time, trade flows from MEA to Europe rose 27%, cementing the region’s role as a vital bridge between Asian production hubs and European consumers.
Despite US tariffs climbing sharply to around 16.8% from 2.4% prior to the administration shift, global supply chain pressures have remained relatively stable, hovering near pre-pandemic levels. South Asia and ASEAN saw shipments from North and East Asia increase by 44%, while Latin America recorded the fastest growth, with exports to South Asia and ASEAN soaring by 82%. Meanwhile, China’s share of US imports dropped significantly to 8% by late 2025, down from over 20% in 2018.
However, rising costs are tightening corporate finances. On average, 6.3% of working capital is now absorbed by tariff-related expenses, with nearly two-thirds of firms citing higher input costs as their main challenge. Around 65% of companies are actively shifting supply chains away from at least one country.
Artificial intelligence is rapidly transforming trade finance, moving from pilot stages to widespread use. Adoption among large firms has climbed to 36%, up 18 percentage points in just one year. Citi’s global head of trade and working capital, Adoniro Cestari, noted that AI-driven document processing now delivers high accuracy while cutting processing times from days to minutes.
The expansion of AI infrastructure is also fuelling financing demand, with Citi Research projecting US$7.75 trillion in global AI-related investment by 2030, much of it supported through supply chain finance and structured receivables.
In a notable development, Citi, alongside PwC and the Solana blockchain, successfully tested a tokenised bill of exchange in a simulated environment, completing processes that typically take days in just minutes. The global trade finance market is currently valued at about US$10 trillion.
Small and medium-sized enterprises remain the weakest link. The report highlights AI’s potential to streamline SME credit assessments and unlock lending in a segment long considered too costly for large financial institutions.
For Africa, the implications are significant. SMEs account for over 90% of businesses and more than 60% of employment and GDP, yet face an annual financing gap estimated at US$300 billion. Trade finance support across the continent meets only about 25% of demand, far below the global average of 60% to 80%.
Citi concludes that the strengthening of trade links between MEA, Asia and Europe presents a growing opportunity for the region. The real test, however, will be whether financial infrastructure, particularly AI-driven solutions, can scale quickly enough to support that expansion.
