Kenya’s tea exports rose by 6% in the first quarter of 2026, reaching 144.46 million kilogrammes, but the increase masks significant shifts in export destinations as geopolitical tensions reshape key markets.
Data shows that while overall export volumes improved, Kenya suffered a sharp decline in sales to Sudan, Jordan and China, forcing the industry to rely more heavily on established markets such as Pakistan and Egypt.
Sudan trade collapses after diplomatic fallout
Sudan recorded the steepest decline among Kenya’s tea buyers, with imports plunging 69% to 1.79 million kilogrammes during the January-March period.
The drop follows Khartoum’s decision to impose a trade ban on Kenya in March 2025 after Nairobi hosted members of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a key party in Sudan’s ongoing civil conflict.
Jordan also significantly reduced its purchases, with imports falling 71% to 860,000 kilogrammes, while exports to China dropped 51% to 1.22 million kilogrammes.
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Analysts attribute Jordan’s decline to broader disruptions affecting Middle Eastern trade routes amid regional instability. China’s reduced demand reflects its limited and highly price-sensitive appetite for bulk black CTC tea, which it primarily imports for blending rather than direct consumption.
Pakistan strengthens dominance
Pakistan further cemented its position as Kenya’s largest tea export destination, increasing imports by 7.22 million kilogrammes year-on-year to a record 56.47 million kilogrammes.
The South Asian nation accounted for 39% of all Kenyan tea exports during the quarter.
Pakistan remains heavily dependent on Kenyan tea, with the East African country supplying roughly 70% of its imports. Despite not producing tea domestically, Pakistan’s annual per capita consumption stands at approximately one kilogramme, higher than the global average of 0.79 kilogrammes.
The trade relationship was valued at about US$557 million in 2024 and continues to be supported by major tea brands that rely on Kenyan CTC tea.
Egypt, UAE and Yemen boost demand
Several markets helped offset losses elsewhere.
Exports to Egypt increased by 5.91 million kilogrammes, while shipments to the United Kingdom rose by 1.34 million kilogrammes. The United Arab Emirates also posted strong growth, recording a 36% increase in imports.
Yemen emerged as one of the fastest-growing destinations, with imports surging 140% to 2.64 million kilogrammes. Industry observers link the increase to changing trade patterns and the use of intermediary routes through Oman as shipping challenges persist across parts of the Gulf region.
Emerging opportunities amid uncertainty
The latest figures highlight Kenya’s growing reliance on a small number of major buyers. The top ten export destinations accounted for more than 120.7 million kilogrammes, representing over 82% of total tea exports during the quarter.
While exports to countries such as Kazakhstan and other emerging markets present new opportunities, many of Kenya’s largest tea destinations continue to face political instability, sanctions, economic difficulties or conflict-related disruptions.
Despite these challenges, stronger demand from Pakistan, Egypt, the UAE and Yemen helped Kenya post an overall export increase of 7.72 million kilogrammes compared to the same period last year, underscoring the resilience of the country’s tea sector amid a rapidly changing global trade landscape.
