New data reveals that for an entire year, global temperatures have consistently remained 1.5°C (2.7°F) above the pre-industrial average, marking an unprecedented period of heat.
From July 2023 to June 2024, scientists recorded the highest temperatures ever, with the Earth averaging 1.64°C warmer than in pre-industrial times.
These findings highlight the severe impact of climate change but do not necessarily indicate that global leaders have failed in their goal to limit warming to 1.5°C by the century’s end—a target based on decadal averages rather than individual years.
Nevertheless, the extreme heat has exposed more people to severe weather and sustained high temperatures heighten the risk of triggering catastrophic tipping points.
Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, which conducted the analysis, emphasized that this is not a statistical anomaly but a significant and ongoing shift in climate patterns.
He stated, “Even if this specific streak of extremes ends at some point, we are bound to see new records being broken as the climate continues to warm.
This is inevitable unless we stop adding greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and the oceans.”
The Copernicus service, part of the EU’s space program, employs a vast array of data from satellites, ships, aircraft, and weather stations to monitor critical climate indicators.
Their findings show that June 2024 was the hottest June on record, continuing a 12-month streak where temperatures were 1.5°C higher than the 1850-1900 average.
While some months only slightly exceeded the 1.5°C threshold, making the streak potentially unconfirmed by other climate agencies, the overall trend is clear.
Carbon emissions, whether from coal power plants or airplane exhausts, trap heat in the Earth’s atmosphere, exacerbating weather extremes and challenging both human and ecological adaptability.
“This is not good news at all,” commented Aditi Mukherji, a director at the research institute CGIAR and co-author of the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report.
“We know that extreme events increase with every increment of global warming – and at 1.5C, we witnessed some of the hottest extremes this year.”
Different ecosystems have varying vulnerabilities.
The latest IPCC review indicates that 1.5°C of warming could devastate 70-90% of tropical coral reefs, with a 2°C rise almost entirely wiping them out.
A survey by The Guardian of hundreds of IPCC authors found that three-quarters expect the planet to warm by at least 2.5°C by 2100, with about half predicting temperatures over 3°C.
These seemingly small increments can significantly affect human suffering and lead to “semi-dystopian” futures.
Mukherji compared global heating to a fever, saying, “Now imagine a human body with [that] temperature for years.
Will that person function normally any more?”
She concluded, “That’s currently our Earth system. It is a crisis.”
François Gemenne, an IPCC author and director of the Hugo Observatory at the University of Liège, explained that the climate crisis is not a binary issue.
“It is not 1.5C or death – every 0.1C matters a great deal because we’re talking about global average temperatures, which translate into massive temperature gaps locally.”
He stressed that even in the best-case scenario, adaptation is crucial and should not be seen as an admission of defeat.
Instead, it is necessary to prepare for a warmer world and enhance response strategies.
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