Africa now holds more than US$2 trillion in domestic capital reserves, but the continent continues to rely heavily on imported refined fuel, exposing what the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) describes as a major failure in deploying local resources into infrastructure and industrial growth.
The findings were released on Thursday in the AFC’s State of Africa’s Infrastructure Report 2026 during the Africa We Build Summit in Nairobi. According to the report, Africa still imports over 70% of its refined petroleum products and could face an 86-million-tonne fuel deficit by 2040 if investment in refining capacity does not accelerate.
The report argues that Africa’s biggest economic challenge is no longer a shortage of money but an inability to direct available funds into large-scale development projects.
AFC data shows that non-bank domestic capital pools across the continent have surpassed US$2 trillion, overtaking the roughly US$1.7 trillion Africa received in foreign financing between 2014 and 2024. Pension and insurance assets alone have exceeded US$1 trillion for the first time, while central bank reserves climbed to US$530 billion in 2025.
Speaking at the summit, AFC President and CEO Samaila Zubairu said the continent already possesses significant financial resources but lacks effective systems to channel those funds into transformative industries and infrastructure projects.
At the same time, foreign development assistance to Africa has continued to shrink, falling from about KSh10.9 trillion in 2020 to KSh9.6 trillion in 2023, with further reductions anticipated. The report suggests this trend makes Africa’s dependence on external financing increasingly unsustainable.
The AFC also highlighted growing energy vulnerabilities linked to global geopolitical tensions. Disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have exposed Africa’s dependence on Middle Eastern fuel imports, with some countries sourcing as much as three-quarters of their refined petroleum from the Gulf region.
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Beyond fuel, Africa imports more than US$230 billion worth of essential goods annually, including fertiliser, steel, plastics, and food products. Demand for refined fuel is expected to rise by 56% over the next 15 years, widening the supply gap unless the continent rapidly expands local refining capacity.
AFC Chief Economist Rita Babihuga-Nsanze identified fertiliser production as another missed industrial opportunity. Despite holding nearly 80% of global phosphate reserves, Africa contributes only around 20% of the world’s fertiliser output. Supply disruptions linked to tensions involving Iran and Gulf states have worsened fertiliser shortages across African markets.
Babihuga-Nsanze said the continent is well positioned to strengthen its own production capacity and reduce dependence on external suppliers.
The report further pointed to aviation as a largely untapped driver of regional economic integration. In Kenya, Rwanda, and Ethiopia combined, the aviation sector contributes approximately US$5.5 billion to GDP and supports nearly one million jobs. AFC believes stronger aviation networks could play a critical role in advancing the African Continental Free Trade Area.
President William Ruto linked the report’s findings to Kenya’s broader economic strategy, citing the National Infrastructure Fund and a planned Sovereign Wealth Fund as vehicles for mobilising domestic and foreign investment. Kenya aims to finance projects worth KSh5 trillion over the next decade and also announced plans to increase its shareholding in the AFC by KSh3.25 billion as the institution opens a regional office in Nairobi.
The report was released alongside businessman Aliko Dangote’s announcement that he intends to establish a 650,000-barrel-per-day refinery in Tanga, Tanzania. However, AFC estimates suggest Africa would still require the equivalent of nearly three refineries of that scale to meet projected fuel demand by 2040.
