Kenya’s electricity network is coming under mounting pressure as demand rises sharply, while generation capacity connected to the national grid has remained largely unchanged for over a year.
Installed interconnected capacity has held steady at 3,192 MW since December 2024, with no additions recorded through mid and end-2025. The absence of new grid-linked power plants in FY2023/24, coupled with the retirement of the 60 MW Kipevu 1 diesel facility, saw capacity drop from 3,311 MW to just under 3,200 MW, where it has since plateaued.
Recent investments have instead flowed into captive solar systems designed for private commercial and industrial use, meaning they do not supply power to the national grid. This off-grid capacity has expanded from 402.3 MW in June 2023 to 630.1 MW by December 2025, effectively diverting potential growth away from the central system.
Meanwhile, electricity demand has accelerated at its quickest pace in years. Peak demand grew by an average of 78 MW annually between 2019 and 2024, before jumping by 139 MW in FY2024/25 alone to reach 2,316 MW. By December 2025, peak load had climbed further to 2,439 MW, a six-month increase of 151 MW.
At this rate, upcoming geothermal additions at the Menengai field, including two 35 MW plants, are likely to be quickly absorbed by rising demand soon after coming online.
The energy mix is also shifting. Geothermal’s share has slipped from over 45% in FY2022/23 to just above 40% in the latter half of FY2025/26, while wind generation has declined as well. In their place, more expensive and higher-emission sources are gaining ground. Thermal generation, for instance, has edged up both in share and absolute output.
Electricity imports have risen markedly, now accounting for over 12% of supply, up from under 5% just a few years ago. This increase follows the full utilisation of the Kenya–Ethiopia transmission link, with import volumes surging significantly.
As a result, the share of renewable energy in Kenya’s electricity mix has fallen from nearly 85% to under 79% over four years, complicating the country’s ambitions to achieve a fully renewable power system by 2035.
The environmental impact is already visible. Carbon emissions from electricity generation jumped by more than 27% in FY2024/25, drawing concern from regulators over alignment with decarbonisation goals.
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On the consumption side, patterns are evolving. Industrial usage, long the backbone of electricity demand, has dipped below 50% of total consumption. In contrast, household demand has crept upward, reflecting changing usage dynamics.
Notably, night-time demand, once a period of lower system pressure, has risen significantly, reducing the buffer grid operators typically rely on. While this has cut energy wastage through curtailment, it also leaves less room to manage fluctuations.
New customer connections are no longer the primary driver of demand growth. Instead, existing users are consuming more electricity, creating a different and more complex load profile for planners to manage.
Compounding the challenge are persistently high system losses, which have remained above 22% for several years. This is well above the regulator’s target of 16.5%, representing a substantial portion of electricity that is generated or purchased but never billed.
