The Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) wrapped up April on a stronger footing, with all key indices posting gains and market capitalisation recovering KSh 174.56 billion. This rebound comes after a steep KSh 179.31 billion loss recorded in March.
The NSE All Share Index climbed 5.40% to 205.34, matching the Banking Index, which also rose to 236.13. Meanwhile, the NSE 10 advanced by 5.15%, and the NSE 25 increased by 4.64%.
Despite the overall recovery, momentum weakened towards the end of the month. The final two weeks registered declines, inflation hit a one-year peak, Murban crude oil prices surged past $100 again, and Treasury bill rates climbed to levels last seen in early 2026.
The most significant development came at month-end, when inflation rose sharply to 5.6% in April, up from 4.4% in March, largely driven by higher fuel costs introduced mid-month.
Market capitalisation expanded to KSh 3,405.29 billion, up from KSh 3,230.73 billion, reflecting a 5.40% increase. Gains were largely concentrated in the first three weeks, which recorded rises of 1.93%, 3.89%, and 0.54%, before tapering off with declines of 0.50% and 0.85% in the closing weeks.
Non-core inflation jumped to 13.4% from 10.8%, underscoring the ripple effect of rising energy costs on transport and utilities. Core inflation also edged higher to 2.8% from 2.1%, signalling that the impact of elevated oil prices is filtering into the broader economy. This shift places added pressure on the Central Bank of Kenya, effectively halting expectations of further rate cuts and putting greater scrutiny on upcoming monetary policy decisions.
Kenya’s GDP growth for 2025 was recorded at 4.6%, slightly lower than 4.7% in 2024, with the final quarter slowing to 4.0% due to a contraction in the agricultural sector.
In the final week of April, the market slipped for the second week in a row. The NASI declined by 0.85% to 205.34, while the NSE 10 dropped 1.50%, and the Banking Index fell 1.12%. Market capitalisation eased by KSh 28.91 billion, and equity turnover shrank by 23.54% to KSh 2.29 billion, with 58.91 million shares traded.
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Market breadth showed notable improvement compared to March, with 37 gainers, 11 unchanged stocks, and 21 losers, a stark contrast to the previous month’s heavy losses. Kenya Airways led the gainers with a 32.38% surge, followed by BOC Kenya, BK Group, Co-operative Bank, and Car & General. Safaricom also posted a modest recovery, gaining 8.00% to close at KSh 29.70.
On the losing end, Flame Tree recorded the steepest drop at 17.05%, while Africa Mega Agricorp, Uchumi, and Umeme also posted declines.
Total equity turnover for April stood at KSh 15.29 billion, down from KSh 19.58 billion in March and KSh 24.97 billion in February. This continued decline in trading activity suggests that investor participation is thinning, even as prices recover.
Foreign investors remained net sellers, offloading KSh 1.67 billion in April, an improvement from March’s KSh 4.28 billion outflow but still indicating sustained caution. Only one week saw net inflows, briefly supported by geopolitical developments, before selling resumed.
Bond market activity also slowed, with turnover falling 46.78% to KSh 32.88 billion, although the Bond Index edged up by 0.58%. Derivatives trading was negligible, with just 32 contracts recorded.
In the money markets, the Kenyan shilling remained relatively stable at KSh 129.19 against the dollar. However, Central Bank reserves declined for the eighth straight week to USD 13.23 billion, reflecting increased pressure from higher oil import costs.
Treasury bill rates rose sharply in the final week, with the 91-day, 182-day, and 364-day instruments all posting notable increases. This upward movement points to tightening liquidity conditions and aligns with the recent inflation spike.
Eurobond yields also reversed course, rising across tenors, signalling heightened investor caution.
Overall, the market is currently trading at 8.1 times earnings, significantly below its historical average, while offering a dividend yield of 5.9%, which remains relatively attractive despite the growing macroeconomic headwinds.
